Do HSR stack? - Page 2 - Guild Wars Forums

Sophitia Leafblade · May 18, 2007, 01:16 PM // 13:16

Quote:

Originally Posted by MisterB

There is a difference, I assure you. Sophita, I have to disagree with you. The two 20% chances do not add to 40%. I think this is your point of confusion. The simple answer is 2 20% mods stack to 36% chance, because of the 50% cap update. Don't make me show my work!

the 50% cap update doesnt make any difference to HCT (it only effects SR which has 40% chance to Half recharge (since there is no quarter time)

The working out on the other thread is wrong. As many people point out the 2 events are separate, look at his diagram on the diagram they arnt separate. I have 2 Seperate (keyword here) chances of 20%.

[.......20......].....heres my 20% of HCT....................<-
.................................................. .........................|Here you have 40% chance for HCT, as u can see they are separate
[....16.....[4]]..... heres my other 20% chance of HCT<-

(the inner square on the bottom 20% being the chance both work, the rest of it is the chance that the 1 OR the other will trigger)

Soul of the Scythe · May 18, 2007, 01:25 PM // 13:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sophitia Leafblade

lol i think your maths needs improving

32+4 = 36, when it should add up to 40

You get 2 times 20% chances, =40, of them 4% (20% 0f 20%) will overlap = 36% HCT/HSR and 4% QCT/QSR

The update capped it at 50% so 40% speed increase is still possible.

it isn't supposed to add up to 40%. Your combining(multiplying) percentages, not not adding numbers, big difference. The reason why thats wrong is because the 4% chance to quarter it applies to both of the 20% mods. That 4% represents the chance of BOTH of them triggering and must be discounted when determining if ONE triggers. Therefore (20%-4%) + (20%-4%)= 32%.

In the link that is provided you can clearly see that the 4% chance to quarter the casting time is an overlap of 4% from each mod.

Ill explain this using a mental visual aid. A Venn Diagram. I'm trusting you all know what that is. Two circles in which a part of each overlap each other. Now, each of these circles represent a 20% HCT mod. The overlapping portion, as we all agree, equals 4% chance to quarter casting time. Now, that leaves 16% chance to HCT in one circle and 16% chance to HCT in the other circle, and 16 + 16 = 32% to HCT.

Combining percentages is not as easy as saying 20+20 = 40. As you said they are 2 seperate events. That like saying yesterday i drank 50% of a full gallon of milk, and today from that same bottle, I drank another 50% and saying the bottle is empty when in reality is 25% full.

Sophitia Leafblade · May 18, 2007, 01:34 PM // 13:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by Soul of the Scythe

In the link that is provided you can clearly see that the 4% chance to quarter the casting time is an overlap of 4% from each mod.

ahha see u mention they overlap! if they are Seperate Events they Cant Overlap! this is where the incorrectness of the diagram comes into effect

Soul of the Scythe · May 18, 2007, 01:44 PM // 13:44

the overlap is when the both activate...

get it?

Cebe · May 18, 2007, 01:51 PM // 13:51

Edit: ignore me, I'm talking crap!

Sophitia Leafblade · May 18, 2007, 01:51 PM // 13:51

ok here a badly drawn but simple diagram to explain.

The 1st diagram is your 1st HCT mod, u have 20% chance of it triggering

The next one is of the 2nd HCT mod, u have 20% chance of it triggering also, of which u have a 4% chance it will trigger as well as the 1st one. (so for the 2nd one u have 16% that just 1 of them will have triggered)

Then to demonstrate the point theres a 3rd one. This one is also a full 20% chance to trigger, there is an 0.8% chance to trigger with both of the others

so u end up with these chances from the 3 mods:

42% chance for 1/2CT, (Yellow ), 7.2% of 1/4CT, (blue) and 0.8%,(green) chance of 1/8CT, there is in total a 60% chance that atleast one of them will trigger.

Soul of the Scythe · May 18, 2007, 02:15 PM // 14:15

for reference:
20% = .2
80% = .8
4% = .04
64% = .64
68% = .68
32% = .32

.2 * .2 = .04 (<--Chance of them both triggering)
(20% * 20% = 4%)

.8 * .8 = .64 (<--Chance of NEITHER triggering)
(80% * 80% = 64%)

seeing as all precentages have to add up to 100%, we get:

.04 + .64 = .68 and 1 - .68 = .32(<--Chance of one of them triggering)
4% + 64% = 68% 100% - 68% = 32%

So, you have:
64% chance of neither triggering
+32% chance of one triggering
4% chance of both triggering
100%

Sophitia Leafblade · May 18, 2007, 02:34 PM // 14:34

Ezekiel Giz Mistopheles says - "hmm i can understand the thinking behind the 80*80 to get 64% but it makes each one inextricably linked to the others but they cant be since they are independent actions. The 1st full 20% is triggered or not triggered without any interference from the 2nd 20%. Your theory works out as the 2nd 20% chance as giving a (32-20) - 12% chance of working + the 4% chance of both working, 12+4 doesnt = 20% chance, by your theory the 2nd 20% gives only 18% chance of working. Hmm i can concur my theory very possibly doesnt work since with 5 times 20% chances u still wont have 100% chance to get HCT or lower, and yet ur theory doesnt add up either. hmm..."

byteme! · May 18, 2007, 11:09 PM // 23:09

Please for the love of god go outside and do something.

lennymon · May 18, 2007, 11:44 PM // 23:44

love your work RotteN

For those interested (and obviously that's the two of you bickering), the math is quite simple though.
you cast a spell with 2 pieces of equipment each giving 20% chance of HRT.

20% chance one HRT mod works and 20% chance the other works. 20+20 does not equal 40 though. Looking at only the results which yield HRT which are 20% + (20% of the 80% which failed the initial 20%=16%) = 36%. Note, this does not take into account those which are double positive (4%) because of the 50% speed boost cap to recharge.
This is why HCT is 32% HCT and 4% quarter cast time though since the 4% for double bonus is part of the 36 so they need to add up to 36%.

Realm of Fiery Doom · May 19, 2007, 03:23 PM // 15:23

Lookie here guys and gals. I'm a 14 year old kiddie and even I can do this.

Chance that a mod will work is .2
Chance that a mod will fail is .8

OK? Got that?

Chance that both mods will work is .2 x .2 = .04, 4%

Yes?

Chance that both mods won't work is .8 x .8 = .64, 64%

Hanging in there?

Chance that one mod works but the other doesn't is 100% - 4% - 64% = 32%
||OR||
Chance that mod A works but the other doesn't is .2 x .8 = .16, 16%,
Chance that mod B works but the other doesn't is .2 x .8 = .16, 16%,
16% + 16% = 32%

It's really that simple. No need to get worked up about it.

thedork01 · May 20, 2007, 06:37 PM // 18:37

thank you fiery doom for being the only one capable of explaining this concept to them.

Soul of the Scythe · May 21, 2007, 02:04 PM // 14:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by Realm of Fiery Doom

Lookie here guys and gals. I'm a 14 year old kiddie and even I can do this.

Chance that a mod will work is .2
Chance that a mod will fail is .8

OK? Got that?

Chance that both mods will work is .2 x .2 = .04, 4%

Yes?

Chance that both mods won't work is .8 x .8 = .64, 64%

Hanging in there?

Chance that one mod works but the other doesn't is 100% - 4% - 64% = 32%
||OR||
Chance that mod A works but the other doesn't is .2 x .8 = .16, 16%,
Chance that mod B works but the other doesn't is .2 x .8 = .16, 16%,
16% + 16% = 32%

It's really that simple. No need to get worked up about it.

isn't that EXACTLY what I posted? Except minus the condescending remarks. This forum is meant for discussions, no one was insulting or being condescending to anyone, we were discussing this. I was trying to convince Sophitia that he/she was wrong and he/she was trying to do the same to me. And if your so smart to be able to figure this out, you whould have been smart enoguh to read that someone else had already posted that exact same thing.(<--That also goes to thedork1 for not reading first.) If your gonna post in a thread, please have the common courtesy to read the whole thing first and not just jump in thinking you know everything and be so condescending, it's not needed here.

Sophitia Leafblade · May 21, 2007, 02:19 PM // 14:19

Quote:

Originally Posted by Soul of the Scythe

isn't that EXACTLY what I posted? Except minus the condescending remarks. This forum is meant for discussions, no one was insulting or being condescending to anyone, we were discussing this. I was trying to convince Sophitia that he/she was wrong and he/she was trying to do the same to me. And if your so smart to be able to figure this out, you whould have been smart enoguh to read that someone else had already posted that exact same thing.(<--That also goes to thedork1 for not reading first.) If your gonna post in a thread, please have the common courtesy to read the whole thing first and not just jump in thinking you know everything and be so condescending, it's not needed here.

Yup and a good job u did too Soul

u convinced me with a little help from Celest.(he reminded me about what if i had 5 20% mods which totally broke my theory) And we kept it civil *cough-unlike some-cough*

/standscorrected (yes im big enough to accept when im wrong)

And although it seems weird how it all works out, your method makes sence to me. so 32% is indeed the answer

May 18, 2007, 01:51 PM // 13:51	#25
Cebe The 5th Celestial Boss Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Inverness, Scotland Guild: The Cult of Scaro [WHO] Profession: E/	Edit: ignore me, I'm talking crap! Last edited by Cebe; May 18, 2007 at 02:02 PM // 14:02..

May 18, 2007, 01:51 PM // 13:51	#26
Sophitia Leafblade Desert Nomad Join Date: Nov 2005 Guild: Dragon Slayer Guild [DSG] Profession: R/	ok here a badly drawn but simple diagram to explain. The 1st diagram is your 1st HCT mod, u have 20% chance of it triggering The next one is of the 2nd HCT mod, u have 20% chance of it triggering also, of which u have a 4% chance it will trigger as well as the 1st one. (so for the 2nd one u have 16% that just 1 of them will have triggered) Then to demonstrate the point theres a 3rd one. This one is also a full 20% chance to trigger, there is an 0.8% chance to trigger with both of the others so u end up with these chances from the 3 mods: 42% chance for 1/2CT, (Yellow ), 7.2% of 1/4CT, (blue) and 0.8%,(green) chance of 1/8CT, there is in total a 60% chance that atleast one of them will trigger. Last edited by Sophitia Leafblade; May 18, 2007 at 01:55 PM // 13:55..

May 18, 2007, 02:15 PM // 14:15	#27
Soul of the Scythe Krytan Explorer Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Boston, MA Guild: Higher Order [HO] Profession: D/	for reference: 20% = .2 80% = .8 4% = .04 64% = .64 68% = .68 32% = .32 .2 * .2 = .04 (<--Chance of them both triggering) (20% * 20% = 4%) .8 * .8 = .64 (<--Chance of NEITHER triggering) (80% * 80% = 64%) seeing as all precentages have to add up to 100%, we get: .04 + .64 = .68 and 1 - .68 = .32(<--Chance of one of them triggering) 4% + 64% = 68% 100% - 68% = 32% So, you have: 64% chance of neither triggering +32% chance of one triggering 4% chance of both triggering 100% Last edited by Soul of the Scythe; May 18, 2007 at 02:24 PM // 14:24..

May 18, 2007, 01:44 PM // 13:44	#24
Soul of the Scythe Krytan Explorer Join Date: Feb 2007 Location: Boston, MA Guild: Higher Order [HO] Profession: D/	the overlap is when the both activate... get it?

May 18, 2007, 02:34 PM // 14:34	#28
Sophitia Leafblade Desert Nomad Join Date: Nov 2005 Guild: Dragon Slayer Guild [DSG] Profession: R/	Ezekiel Giz Mistopheles says - "hmm i can understand the thinking behind the 80*80 to get 64% but it makes each one inextricably linked to the others but they cant be since they are independent actions. The 1st full 20% is triggered or not triggered without any interference from the 2nd 20%. Your theory works out as the 2nd 20% chance as giving a (32-20) - 12% chance of working + the 4% chance of both working, 12+4 doesnt = 20% chance, by your theory the 2nd 20% gives only 18% chance of working. Hmm i can concur my theory very possibly doesnt work since with 5 times 20% chances u still wont have 100% chance to get HCT or lower, and yet ur theory doesnt add up either. hmm..."

May 18, 2007, 11:09 PM // 23:09	#29
byteme! Forge Runner Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: On Earth Profession: W/P	Please for the love of god go outside and do something.

May 18, 2007, 11:44 PM // 23:44	#30
lennymon Forge Runner Join Date: Nov 2005 Location: Seattle Guild: Odin's Hammer [OH] - Servant's of Fortuna [SoF] Profession: R/	love your work RotteN For those interested (and obviously that's the two of you bickering), the math is quite simple though. you cast a spell with 2 pieces of equipment each giving 20% chance of HRT. 20% chance one HRT mod works and 20% chance the other works. 20+20 does not equal 40 though. Looking at only the results which yield HRT which are 20% + (20% of the 80% which failed the initial 20%=16%) = 36%. Note, this does not take into account those which are double positive (4%) because of the 50% speed boost cap to recharge. This is why HCT is 32% HCT and 4% quarter cast time though since the 4% for double bonus is part of the 36 so they need to add up to 36%.

May 19, 2007, 03:23 PM // 15:23	#31
Realm of Fiery Doom Lion's Arch Merchant Join Date: Mar 2007 Guild: Realm of Fiery Doom	Lookie here guys and gals. I'm a 14 year old kiddie and even I can do this. Chance that a mod will work is .2 Chance that a mod will fail is .8 OK? Got that? Chance that both mods will work is .2 x .2 = .04, 4% Yes? Chance that both mods won't work is .8 x .8 = .64, 64% Hanging in there? Chance that one mod works but the other doesn't is 100% - 4% - 64% = 32% \|\|OR\|\| Chance that mod A works but the other doesn't is .2 x .8 = .16, 16%, Chance that mod B works but the other doesn't is .2 x .8 = .16, 16%, 16% + 16% = 32% It's really that simple. No need to get worked up about it.

May 20, 2007, 06:37 PM // 18:37	#32
thedork01 Academy Page Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: All over the place Guild: Broken Circle Profession: E/Me	thank you fiery doom for being the only one capable of explaining this concept to them.